The potential impact of Trump’s victory on the EU-US relationship.

After what at some points felt like a never-ending campaign cycle, the results from the 2024 United States presidential elections are in. The decision of American voters has resulted in another four years of a Trump presidency along with a Republican-controlled Senate and most likely a Republican-controlled House of Representatives. The return of Donald Trump and his ‘Make America Great Again’ policies in the White House is certainly a controversial one. As Americans process the results of this election with mixed feelings ranging from joy to dismay to apprehension, it is worth examining what these results mean for the future relationship between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). As the US returns to four more years of a more isolationist America-first policy, the EU will have to reevaluate its relationship with the US – in particular the areas of economic and foreign policy. A successful reaction by the EU could lead to the overall strengthening of the EU through greater member state cooperation in promoting EU interests internationally and increased development in European lead defence. 

Impact on economic policy 

Currently, the US and the EU have the world’s largest trade and investment relationship between each other. According to the EU, the economic relationship between the US and the EU resulted in a high of €1.2 trillion in 2021. This trade between both sides of the Atlantic directly employs 9.4 million workers and indirectly creates 16 million jobs across both partners. As such, it is safe to say that the EU and the US have a close economic relationship. 

However, the return of Donald Trump to the White House could change this. During his first presidency, the US viewed its economic relationship with the EU in a more negative light. This was partly due to the US’ trade deficit in goods (the amount it imports versus the amount it exports) with the EU reaching $169 billion in 2018, a 77.1% increase since 2008. However, the US still maintained a surplus in the trade of services with the EU during this time. The US responded to this trade deficit by suspending the negotiations for a US-EU trade agreement, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. The US also placed a 10% tariff on aluminum and a 25% tariff on steel imported from the EU, leading the EU to respond with their own tariffs on American products such as Levi’s and Harley Davidson motorcycles. 

A second Trump presidency will probably see the return of this strained economic relationship between the EU and the US. Trump has already stated that he would impose tariffs of 20% on all goods being imported into the US from other countries, including the EU. Although it is far from guaranteed that such a drastic economic policy would be implemented in full, widespread American tariffs on goods from the EU, especially German cars, have the potential to harm multiple member states’ economies. Moreover, there is a risk as well that the US could attempt to weaken China’s influence by imposing tariffs on European goods made from Chinese parts, which could also hurt member states’ economies. According to Politico, the European Commission has already prepared “substantial retaliation” plans to pressure a new Trump administration into negotiations if the US does impose significant tariffs on goods imported from the EU.

Impact on foreign policy 

The return of Donald Trump to the White House will impact the foreign policy aspect of the US and EU relationship too. It is probable that Trump’s victory will cause a shift in the US’ position on the war in Ukraine and supporting NATO. However, it will also likely cause a shift in how the US interacts with the EU and the other way around.

What has already been widely discussed on both sides of the Atlantic is the potential impact of a second Trump presidency on the US’ position on the Ukraine war and its support for NATO. Trump had already stated that he would end the war in Ukraine on his first day but has not, at the time of writing, presented a clear plan on what this means exactly. This has led to questions about what the US’ support for Ukraine will look like in a Trumpian future. There is a fear of a worst-case scenario where the US completely halts its aid to Ukraine, creating a gap in support that would be difficult for the EU to fill. Additionally, Trump has said that he would push for a deal between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours to end the conflict. Such a rushed deal could very well end in an agreement that massively disadvantages Ukraine and could result in some territory gains for Russia. 

However, there is the likelihood that the US will continue to support Ukraine but in a different way moving forward. According to RadioFreeEurope, Mike Pompeo is being seriously considered for the position of Secretary of Defense. Pompeo has advocated for the creation of a $500 billion lend-lease program to provide weapons to Ukraine along with its accession into NATO. Within the text of Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s 922-page proposal for what a Trump presidency should look like, it states that “with respect to Ukraine, continued U.S. involvement must be fully paid for; limited to military aid (while European allies address Ukraine’s economic needs); and have a clearly defined national security strategy that does not risk American lives”. In regards to the US’ future involvement with NATO, Project 2025 advocates for increased burden sharing and to “transform NATO so that U.S. allies are capable of fielding the great majority of the conventional forces required to deter Russia while relying on the United States primarily for our nuclear deterrent, and select other capabilities while reducing the U.S. force posture in Europe”. These positions hint towards a slightly more isolationist US without a fully committed withdrawal of American involvement when it comes to supporting Ukraine and NATO. This would nevertheless result in a reality where the EU and its member states will have to further increase their defense capabilities and support to Ukraine. 

As mentioned earlier in this article, the return of a Trumpian US will impact how the US interacts with the EU and the other way around.  Both Ursula von der Leyen and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola have already congratulated Trump on his victory, stressing the need to maintain the transatlantic relationship between the two partners. During the first Trump presidency (2016-2020), the US downgraded the EU Delegation to the US’ diplomatic status from the level of a nation-state to that of an international organization without any warning. This change in status resulted in it being less likely that the EU Delegation would be invited to events with high-ranking American officials, limiting the diplomatic access of the EU. Furthermore, the first Trump presidency preferred to interact diplomatically with EU member states on an individual level rather than at an EU level. This will likely return as the US’ preferred means of interaction with the EU diplomatically.  

Potential responses by the EU 

So, how should the EU respond to the return of Donald Trump to the White House and a much more conservative American government? The EU’s response should try to maintain the transatlantic relationship while recognising that the US will continue to be an increasingly less reliable partner for the years to come, including after the end of Trump’s term in 2028. The EU will have to adapt to a Europe where the US is less involved and less interested as its priorities solidify towards being Pacific-oriented. This will mean the EU will have to continue to improve its defense cooperation and development, both within and outside of NATO. 

The EU will have to adapt its strategy for interacting with the US as well. In the coming years, it may benefit the EU to take more of a diplomatic backseat as an organization when it comes to interacting with the US. Instead, the EU should encourage its member states to foster more individual connections with high-level American government officials, including in Congress, in order to advocate its interests on a bilateral country-to-country level. When it comes to trade, the EU should stress to the US the benefits for both sides of the transatlantic trading partnership and how the transatlantic relationship can succeed in limiting China’s influence by working together. 

On a final note, it is important to recognize that the return of a Trumpian America comes at a time when the EU is already at a crossroads of deciding what or how it wants its own future to look like, both in terms of further expansion and integration. Although it may be tempting to sink into fears of what a more isolationist US will mean for the balance of power in Europe, this can also be a time of hope and motivation for the EU and its member states to work together to grow and strengthen. It may be that standing more on its own is what the EU needs to increase its strength on the international stage.

Viktoria previously did her bachelor’s in Languages and International Relations at the University of Greenwich in London, UK. She is currently studying for a master’s in European Union Studies at Leiden University.

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