A look back at the 2024 European Parliament elections.

The new European Parliament was officially installed on 16 July 2024, after the tenth European Parliament elections took place in June. A political landslide was predicted, in which parties on the (extreme) right in particular would gain ground. The official election results have now been determined and Ursula von der Leyen has been elected for a second term. In this article, written by many editors from Shaping Europe, we discuss this result and its consequences. Did the (extreme) right indeed win the elections? What was the voter turnout, and did it differ greatly per country? And has there been enough media attention for the elections? You can read it here!

The election results

To get straight to the point: the distribution of seats in the new European Parliament (EP) will now be as follows:

The most notable shifts from the 2019 results are the significant losses of Renew and the Greens and the gains of the European People’s Party, led by Ursula von der Leyen. As expected, there is certainly an ‘extreme right trend’ visible in Parliament, although interestingly this is considerably weaker than previously predicted. In fact, relatively little has changed in relations within the EP and the pro-European parties hold a clear dominance. The traditional centre parties still have a comfortable majority, so the fear that the EP will split into strongly opposing camps does not appear to become true. The general conclusion in the European media was: “The centre has held its ground”. However, there is also a clear rise from the right and this will influence the legislation that will be put on the table in the next term.

There have been some remarkable shifts in the (extreme) right-wing party families. To some extent this is simply ‘old wine in new bottles’, but some developments are also very significant. For example, Viktor Orbán has started a completely new group called ‘Patriots for Europe’, convincing so many parties that this family is now the third largest in Parliament. Meanwhile, the Alternative für Deutschland has been excluded from their group because it was considered too extreme. Georgia Meloni’s Fratteli D’Italia chose to remain in the ECR group.

Two clear trends can be distinguished based on the different elections in all countries. Firstly, it is striking that government parties, with a few exceptions, suffer major losses and are, therefore, punished by the voters. Secondly, the rise of (radical) right-wing parties remains of course the most important story of these elections. In some Member States, such as France, Italy and Austria, these parties even convincingly won election victories. In other countries they did not win, but came, surprisingly, second. Examples of this are Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands. Finally, it was not just the right that celebrated: a number of countries even saw a revival of left-wing and green parties, such as in Scandinavia and the Baltic states. All in all, it is a mixed picture, which of course is expected with 27 different elections. Of course, the results in the big countries, especially France, will have an above-average effect. And it is precisely in these large countries, with the highest number of MEPs, that the radical right has gained significant ground.

Implications for the European Parliament

The parties officially chose which European faction they join after the elections. For example, the Dutch parties BBB (Farmers & People Movement) and NSC (New Social Contract), which are new to the EP, wanted to join the European People’s Party (EPP). The Dutch party CDA (Christian Democrats), which was already in the EPP group, had to give them permission to join. The party has now admitted BBB and NSC and that is why the EPP group now includes three Dutch parties. Not all new MEPs from national parties are currently affiliated with a European group.

As mentioned, there are differences compared to 2019 in terms of the size of the European groups. As shown in the table, the EPP (188 seats) and the Socialists & Democrats (S&D, 136 seats) are still the largest groups. Renew Europe, the third group between 2019 and 2024, had to give up many seats: it will drop from 102 to 77. There had been discussions within this group about whether the Dutch party VVD should remain a member. The group also includes parties such as D66 (also a Dutch party), which are more left than the VVD and criticised the coalition formation of the VVD with the PVV in the Netherlands. Ultimately, Renew Europe agreed and the VVD was allowed to remain a member. Perhaps this is also due to the dramatic drop in seats.

The Greens/EFA also lost about 20 seats. The European Left grows slightly: from 37 to 46 seats. As predicted in advance, the far-right groups have won many seats. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR, including Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia) go from 69 to 78 seats and the Patriots for Europe group (including Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National and Geert Wilders’ PVV) immediately takes third place.

Even though many (extreme) right-wing parties have won in individual Member States, the EP remains largely the same. The two largest groups (EPP and S&D) remain the largest groups, hence, the middle remains intact. The EPP, S&D and the Liberals together still have a majority in the EP, and if the Greens also join, there will be a solid majority. The right-wing groups ECR and PFE therefore cannot implement radical changes together. Moreover, there are many differences between these extreme right-wing parties. For example, the ECR group is pro-Ukraine, while the PFE group is more pro-Russia. Many of the parties in these groups also have a strong nationalist character, which makes international cooperation difficult.

Yet, the election victories of far-right parties in many Member States should not be underestimated. Never before have far-right parties won as many seats as in these European elections. The other groups had, up until now, excluded the ID Group from cooperation but were more willing to cooperate with the ECR Group. This will probably increase in the new legislative term and there is, therefore, a chance that the right will be used more often to achieve a majority. This will have consequences for which themes are high on the political agenda. For example, there will be less attention to climate and the Green Deal and more to migration.

Turnout

The European elections are the second largest democratic exercise. In 2024, 357 million Europeans could vote. On average, 51.08% of eligible voters showed up, just over half. This is a small increase compared to 2019 when turnout was 50.66%. Turnout has been increasing since 2004, but as you can see it is still quite low. This always causes problems for the democratic degree and legitimacy of the EP.

Turnout has increased in several countries, for example in Germany, Ireland, France, the Netherlands, Portugal, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Cyprus (from 45% to 57%) and Slovenia (from 29% to 42%) experienced significant growth. Yet, turnout fell in some other European countries. Especially in Lithuania, it went wrong; only 28% of the population came to vote (compared to 53% in the previous elections). Turnout also fell in Denmark, Italy, Luxembourg, Estonia, Spain, Sweden, Finland, Poland, and Hungary. The percentage of voters remained stable in Estonia, Latvia, Malta, Bulgaria, and Belgium.

In general, (centre) left voters are more attracted to the European Parliament elections than (extreme) right voters – for example, because they have more confidence in the European Union (EU). Turnout can, therefore, explain part of the result. In Sweden, the number of voters fell, and the left parties won, while in the Netherlands – where turnout rose – the number of right-wing voters had also increased.

Most important election themes

The European Parliament elections retained their second-rate character, despite attempts to create a sense of real ‘European elections’, with the debates between Spitzenkandidaten being a first example. In Belgium and Bulgaria, the European elections were overshadowed by the simultaneously held national elections. In other countries, voters largely treated it as a referendum on current national governments. This resulted in painful losses for the governing parties in Germany and France, after which French President Emmanuel Macron called new national parliamentary elections. In contrast, the parties of the Italian and Polish prime ministers won. In Hungary and Slovakia – two countries with Eurosceptic governments – the opposition parties surprisingly won. The citizens of the Scandinavian countries also voted for a new left-wing direction.

Yet, in most countries, several issues dominated. The main breaking points were migration and environmental protection. The emphasis on migration partly explains the victory of far-right parties. In the months before the elections, centre-right parties already took a stronger position on migration, which led to the EU’s approval of a new Asylum and Migration Pact in the spring of 2024. This is aimed at a strict limitation of the number of migrants to the EU and less attention to a more humane reception. Even typically more liberal political leaders, such as Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, took a restrictive position on migration.

A similar pattern can be seen in environmental protection. The Green Deal, originally one of the showpieces of the current Commission, was stripped down after the appointed commissioner, Frans Timmermans, left Brussels in 2023. At the end of 2023, the Nature Restoration Act was watered down when the EPP group started having doubts. After farmers’ protests broke out across the Union, including in Brussels, Commission President Von der Leyen (EPP) also became less outspoken about the Green Deal. The shift in focus is remarkable. In 2019, environmental protection was a dominant issue, which was an advantage for the Greens. This year, environmental protection was again in the spotlight, but this time as a target of criticism in combination with the rising cost of living. This link was particularly visible in Germany, where the number of Greens in the EP reduced from 21 to only 12.

Another dominant issue was the war in Ukraine. In a Focaldata pre-election poll conducted in the five largest EU countries and Sweden, this was listed as one of the most important issues (together with the economy, migration, and the environment). The war issue was translated into calls to appoint a defence commissioner and boost the European defence industry. However, it does not appear to have been a divisive issue, as even the radical right – with a few exceptions – is in favour of supporting Ukraine.

What is striking is the many topics that have been ignored, despite making headlines recently. In particular, the Gaza war, the rise of China as a world power, the expansion of the EU, changes to the EU treaties and the increasing tensions and polarisation in society hardly played a role during the elections.

Media attention for the EP elections

During the EP elections, the media played an important role in informing European voters. The media had to deal with challenges such as disinformation, the pluralism of European media and increasing political campaigning on social media. The threat of disinformation came, among other things, from pro-Russian disinformation networks, which are created to spread incorrect information with the aim of manipulating the public. For example, there are mainly false stories circulating about the corruption of EU institutions, falsification of election results and thwarting the interests of discussion.

Compared to the EP elections in 2019, there is an important increase in knowledge about options for combating disinformation in the EU. For example, censoring disinformation is not necessarily the solution, but is actually important to ensure that more reliable independent and public journalism is available. In addition to disinformation, the partisanship of media organisations is a risk factor in elections. Although public and conventional audiovisual media in Europe have a low risk of being biased according to research, this does not imply the same for social media platforms. These platforms still lack adequate regulations on false information and popular advertisements.

Other important players in the European media landscape are the pan-European media companies, such as Politico Europe, EUobserver, Euractiv and Euronews. These news publishers have the potential to contribute to a broad European information provision, but still face financing problems, making it mainly accessible to European policymakers and not to the general public.

In contrast, bottom-up projects,  seeking to increase the accessibility of information, were a valuable source of information during the elections. Thanks to these types of innovative capabilities, we arm ourselves with reliable information to gain a better understanding of what is at stake during the elections.

Finally, on April 29, the EP released a video on their socials as part of the Use Your Vote campaign. In the video, titled “Use your voice. Or others decide for you. European elections, June 6-9, 2024″, various people share their own experiences about the value of democracy, addressed to their own grandchildren (and, like the video, also emphasises: the rest of Europe). These people were eyewitnesses to events such as World War II, the Velvet Revolution, the Fall of the Berlin Wall, you name it. Each and every one of these events in European history highlights the importance of democracy. The message: peace and democracy are fragile. The fact that the EP elections can take place is not a given and this must be cherished by making use of this voting right. If you do not want to use your vote, others will decide for you.

Whether it was the Use Your Vote campaign that paid off or something else is not clear, but the goal was achieved: for the second time in a row, the average increased. Although not as much as between 2014 (42.61%) and 2019 (50.66%), with an average of 51.08%, a large number of voting Europeans still cast their vote.

What happens now?

The people have decided, all 720 MEPs are known and either join one of the political groups in Parliament or form a new one. However, this is only the beginning! Before the EP’s tenth term can kick off there are still a few things to be settled. The first plenary session took place from 16 to 19 July in Strasbourg. The brand-new MPs elected the EP president, including all vice-presidents. Maltese Roberta Metsola was reelected for a second term as President. During this session they also decided how many MPs would serve on each EP committee. Parliament  also had to decide what to do with files that were not finalised before the elections. These include fighting corruption, artificial intelligence liability issues, animal transport, and dog and cat welfare.

On July 18th Germany’s Ursulla von der Leyen was also reelected for a second term as president of the European Council. She received an absolute majority within the EP. Moreover, the Council also nominates the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. It seems to be just a formality before Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is officially appointed for this role.

The European Council will meet on 1 December to elect their new president. At the moment, Portugal’s António Costa appears to be the frontrunner in the race to replace Charles Michel. However, there is a small problem: the former Prime Minister of Portugal is involved in a judicial investigation in his home country. Prosecutors allege that members of Costa’s government amended legislation in favour of the financiers of a data centre in Sines, in the south of the country. Although Costa is unlikely to be prosecuted, the question remains whether this investigation will be an obstacle to his candidacy.

Now that the Parliament is officially installed, the legislation of the new European dream team for the next five years can begin!

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