How can Europe prepare better for natural disasters?

On Wednesday 30 October 2024, the Valencia region was hit by one of the deadliest floods in modern Spanish history. In some villages within eight hours almost 500 millimetres of rain fell – as much as the normal annual rainfall. The heavy rain turned streets into swirling rivers, bridges collapsed and residents were trapped in their houses and cars. The toll of the disaster is high with over 220 dead and many missing (figures from 11 November 2024). The Valencia floods are not only a tragedy for the region but also illustrate how vulnerable Europe is to climate-related disasters.

Despite warnings from meteorologists before the disaster, the authorities failed to notify the residents in time. Many residents only received an emergency notification via their mobile phones when the water was already high. “They set off the alarm when the water was already flowing through the streets”, told Julian Ormeno, a retired man from Valencia, the AFP. The delay in communication contributed to the chaos and raised questions about the efficiency of the disaster response mechanism. The incident highlights that current emergency response procedures are often too slow or fragmented to respond effectively to the growing threat of extreme weather events. News of the dramatic death toll came just before European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen presented a report on how to improve the European Union’s (EU) ability to deal with crises of all kinds, from wars to weather extremes.

Climate change

The floods in Valencia are a glaring example of the increasing severity of extreme weather due to climate change. Von der Leyen called it “the dramatic reality of climate change” and stressed that such weather phenomena are the “new norm”. Extreme weather events are becoming more common due to rising temperatures and changing weather systems. The phenomenon that caused this downpour – a Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos (DANA) – is more common in Spain during autumn and winter. A DANA is a meteorological phenomenon that occurs when a cold air mass becomes isolated at high altitude and passes over warm, humid air layers. This contrast between cold air at the top and warm, humid air below causes strong rising air currents resulting in heavy thunderstorms and sometimes even hail. However, due to climate change, this DANA is becoming increasingly powerful.

Human influence probably increased the intensity of this storm, according to climatologist Dr Friederike Otto of Imperial College London. A quick analysis suggested that climate change amplified rainfall by about 12 per cent. Unfortunately, the Valencia disaster is not an isolated case. Other parts of Europe have also recently been hit by extreme weather events, such as the floods in Germany in 2021 and the heavy rainfall in Austria earlier this year. This calls for better preparation.

Poor preparation and unsafe construction sites

The risk posed by extreme weather events is also compounded by poor planning and vulnerable construction sites in urban areas such as Valencia. The city of Valencia has developed rapidly in recent decades, leading to an increase in residential areas in flood-prone sites. This uncontrolled urbanisation has increased the impact of the disaster. Asphalt and concrete harden the ground, making it harder for water to flow away and creating dangerous situations faster. According to geologist Joan Escuer, the damage would have been less extensive if better thought had been given to where to build. This kind of construction policy shows that economic interests are sometimes considered more important than safety. 

The criticism of policy and preparation does not stop at infrastructure. Despite the weather forecasts, many companies called on their employees to come to work. This led to unnecessary risks to their safety. The Spanish Environment Secretary, Hugo Móran, informed EFE that the forecasting system of AEMET, the Spanish meteorological agency, had worked perfectly and that meteorologists could ‘predict days in advance what would happen’. He added: “The subsequent response mechanisms, however, did not adequately process these warnings”. Spanish trade unions have called for a protest against the regional authorities and some companies. According to them, they were putting their workers at risk by taking no, or late, precautions.

The European approach to crisis

The EU report presented by Von der Leyen on 31 October 2024 calls for a thorough reform of European crisis structures to be better prepared for natural disasters like this and other major crises. The plan, called the Preparedness Union Strategy, argues that Europe can no longer just react to crises, but must be structurally prepared. Concrete measures aimed at faster response, stronger infrastructure, and increased cooperation between member states have been proposed. Which would have been very useful in the event of a flood as in Valencia.

For example, the report advocates the creation of a central crisis hub within the European Commission, which could act as a coordination centre for cross-border disasters. This hub would complement and streamline existing mechanisms such as the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC). The hub is intended to act as a central information and coordination point in times of crisis so that valuable time is not wasted. This is exactly what was lacking during the Valencia floods: a centralised system that quickly gathers and coordinates all information.

In addition, the report suggests investing in a European warning system that would allow warnings to be sent quickly and reliably to affected citizens. Had such a system worked in Valencia, many residents would have been able to seek safety in time. The report also stresses the importance of a well-prepared private sector and suggests strengthening public-private partnerships and developing a joint EU supply strategy to ensure that there are sufficient critical goods, such as food and medical supplies. In the days following the floods, the hardest-hit places in Valencia ran out of running water. Furthermore, the report calls for investment in risk education and a wider commitment to public awareness, so that citizens know better how to act during disasters. 

A role for the European Union

The Valencia disaster is a warning for Europe and illustrates the need for better resilience to extreme weather. Von der Leyen stresses in the Preparedness Union Strategy that the EU must play a more integrated role, not only supporting national crisis structures but also setting new standards and coordination mechanisms. For instance, our infrastructure requires adaptations to the new climate reality. Regional and national governments need to respond more adequately and quickly to severe weather, and the importance of well-designed urbanisation and safe building sites cannot be overemphasised. Concrete steps such as centralised coordination, warning systems and closer cooperation between citizens, the private sector and governments can help cope better with future disasters. The Valencia floods makes it painfully clear that Europe’s infrastructure and crisis policies need to evolve. The Preparedness Union Strategy takes the first steps in the right direction. However, that does not mean that there is no additional room for improvement. There will soon appear another article on Shaping Europe which will further explore EU solidarity around natural disasters and the resources the EU has available for emergency relief and recovery.

Olga holds a BA in International Relations from Utrecht University, an MSC in Public Administration from Erasmus University Rotterdam and an MSC in Migration Studies from Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona. In addition, she has two years of work experience in asylum reception in the Netherlands.

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